Palm Oil Futures Rise 3.85% as Export Rebound Offsets Record Malaysian Stocks, Finds Epignosis Insights

Epignosis Insights today released the Week 42 edition of its Global Palm Oil Price Tracker, covering trading from 12 to 16 October 2026. The report finds that crude palm oil (CPO) prices recovered strongly during the week despite record inventories in Malaysia, as a sharp revival in export shipments and festival-season demand from India restored buyer confidence. The benchmark January 2027 contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed the week at RM4,769 per tonne, about US$1,169, a gain of 3.85% and its second consecutive weekly rise.

Key Highlights

• Benchmark CPO futures climbed 3.85% week-on-week to RM4,769 per tonne.
• Malaysian palm oil stocks reached a record 3.51 million tonnes in September as output hit its highest level since 2015.
• Malaysian exports for 1–15 October rose between 43% and 58% from the same period of September.
• India’s palm oil imports climbed to a seven-month high of 817,884 tonnes in September.
• Epignosis Insights expects a week-ahead trading range of RM4,620–4,880 per tonne with a neutral-to-firm bias.

A Market Divided Between Today and 2027

The central finding of this week’s tracker is that palm oil is being priced on two different timelines. Near-term supply is abundant, while the outlook for 2027 is tightening. Epignosis Insights’ analysis of the futures curve shows the spread between November 2026 and March 2027 contracts widened to RM423 per tonne by mid-October, up from RM363 in late September. This structure indicates that buyers are willing to pay a premium for deferred supply but remain cautious about absorbing prompt tonnes.

Prompt Supply: Record Malaysian Inventories

Malaysian palm oil stocks rose 24.5% in September to 3.51 million tonnes, the highest on record, as crude palm oil production climbed 16.5% to 2.12 million tonnes and exports slipped 12.1%. On Epignosis Insights calculations, inventories now cover more than three months of exports at the current pace. Physical CPO for October delivery in southern Malaysia eased to RM4,440 per tonne, underscoring the weight of nearby supply.

Forward Risk: El Niño and Indonesia’s B50 Programme

Looking further ahead, the report highlights two structural forces that could tighten the global balance. Weather authorities now assess a strong-to-very-strong El Niño as highly likely through early 2027, a pattern that historically reduces oil palm yields with a lag of several months. At the same time, Indonesia’s planned move to a 50% biodiesel blend from January is projected to lift domestic consumption and could reduce the country’s exports by around 4.5 million tonnes next year. Indonesian stocks have already fallen nearly 20% to 2.21 million tonnes by August, in contrast to the build in Malaysia.

Demand Signals Turn Supportive

The week’s rally was driven primarily by demand. Cargo surveyor estimates showed a strong rebound in Malaysian shipments in early October, reversing two months of weaker exports. India, the world’s largest edible oil importer, increased palm oil purchases as sunflower oil imports dropped 32% to their lowest level since April 2022 amid Black Sea supply disruptions. According to Epignosis Insights, palm oil’s share of India’s edible oil imports rose to about 53% in September, and the country is expected to remain the anchor of demand through the Diwali season.

Policy Widens Malaysia’s Export Advantage

The tracker also quantifies a growing cost gap between the two largest exporters. Indonesia’s combined CPO export duty and levy for October total roughly US$308 per tonne, compared with Malaysia’s November export duty of approximately US$106 per tonne, according to Epignosis Insights calculations. This gap of about US$200 per tonne helps explain why Malaysian shipments recovered so quickly in October, and it remains a key variable for importers comparing origins.
Expert Commentary

“Palm oil is being pulled in two directions. Malaysia is carrying record stocks today, but the combination of a strong El Niño and Indonesia’s B50 mandate points to a materially tighter market in 2027. That is exactly what the forward curve is telling us, and it creates clear opportunities for buyers to secure prompt cover and for producers to hedge deferred output at attractive levels.”
— Abhijith Nair, Senior Research Manager, Epignosis Insights

Outlook for the Week Ahead

For the week of 19–23 October, Epignosis Insights expects the January 2027 contract to trade between RM4,620 and RM4,880 per tonne. Its base case assumes continued export growth and stabilising Malaysian stocks. A stronger-than-expected export pace or early reports of El Niño dryness could push prices toward RM5,050, while a softer export trend or a sell-off in crude oil could pull prices back toward RM4,450. Market participants will closely watch cargo surveyor data for 1–20 October, China’s third-quarter GDP, Indonesia’s November reference price and confirmation of the B50 timetable.

About the Global Palm Oil Price Tracker

The Global Palm Oil Price Tracker is a weekly publication from Epignosis Insights that monitors benchmark futures, forward curves, physical prices, producer supply and demand data, trade flows, export policy and weather risk. Each edition includes a proprietary price dashboard, price driver map, scenario analysis and week-ahead outlook, supported by charts for procurement, trading and planning teams. The full Week 42 report is available to Epignosis Insights clients and subscribers.

About Epignosis Insights

Epignosis Insights is a market research and brand intelligence consultancy that delivers market sizing, competitive intelligence, commodity price tracking, brand health tracking and syndicated research across chemicals, energy, agriculture, FMCG, BFSI, automotive and industrial sectors. Its research teams combine primary research with structured analysis of government, industry association, company and market data to help clients make faster, evidence-based decisions.