1. Executive Summary

1.1. Overview of the European Fertilizer Market in September 2026
1.2. Key Developments in Global Fertilizer Price Benchmarks
1.3. Recovery in Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Amid Rising Natural Gas Costs
1.4. Price Trends Across Urea, Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) and Potassium Chloride
1.5. European Ammonium Nitrate and Urea Price Developments
1.6. Impact of Dutch TTF Natural Gas Prices on European Fertilizer Production
1.7. Effects of Russian Fertilizer Tariffs and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
1.8. Divergence Between Global Benchmarks and European Delivered Prices
1.9. October 2026 Price Outlook and Market Expectations

2. Monthly Price Snapshot

2.1. Overview of September 2026 Fertilizer Price Benchmarks
2.2. Global Urea Benchmark Price (US$/tonne)
2.3. Global Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Benchmark Price (US$/tonne)
2.4. Global Potassium Chloride Benchmark Price (US$/tonne)
2.5. UK-Produced Ammonium Nitrate Delivered Price (£/tonne)
2.6. Great Britain Granular Urea Delivered Price (£/tonne)
2.7. Italian Urea 46% Wholesale Price (€/tonne)
2.8. Dutch TTF Natural Gas Price (€/MWh)
2.9. Estimated European Ammonia Gas Feedstock Cost (€/tonne)
2.10. Comparison with Previous Reference Prices
2.11. Monthly and Year-on-Year Price Changes
2.12. Key Cost and Market Indicators Influencing European Fertilizer Prices

3. Price Movement Analysis: Global Benchmarks

3.1. Overview of Global Fertilizer Price Trends, January–September 2026
3.2. Historical Movement in the Global Urea Benchmark
3.2.1. January 2026 Price Levels
3.2.2. April 2026 Peak and Subsequent Price Correction
3.2.3. September 2026 Price Recovery
3.3. Global Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Performance
3.3.1. Monthly Price Developments
3.3.2. Cumulative Price Increase Since January 2026
3.3.3. Implications for European NPK Producers
3.4. Global Potassium Chloride Price Performance
3.4.1. May 2026 Price Peak
3.4.2. Price Decline Through September 2026
3.4.3. Implications for Fertilizer Buyers
3.5. Factors Driving the September Urea Price Rebound
3.5.1. Seasonal Restocking Activity
3.5.2. Rising Energy and Natural Gas Costs
3.5.3. Absence of a New Global Supply Shock
3.6. Relative Price Performance Across Nitrogen, Phosphate and Potash
3.7. Implications of Global Benchmark Trends for European Fertilizer Markets
3.8. Global Fertilizer Benchmark Comparison, January–September 2026

4. European Farm-Gate and Wholesale Prices

4.1. Overview of European Fertilizer Prices in September 2026
4.2. Great Britain Farm-Gate Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices
4.2.1. UK-Produced Ammonium Nitrate Delivered Prices
4.2.2. Imported Ammonium Nitrate Delivered Prices
4.2.3. Granular Urea Delivered Prices
4.2.4. Liquid Urea Ammonium Nitrate (UAN) Prices
4.2.5. Nitrogen-Sulphur Fertilizer Price Trends
4.3. Comparison of UK Fertilizer Prices with December 2025 Levels
4.4. Year-on-Year Changes in UK Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices
4.5. Italian Wholesale Urea Market
4.5.1. Urea 46% Wholesale Price in Turin
4.5.2. Weekly Price Stability in September 2026
4.6. German Farm-Level Fertilizer Price Developments
4.6.1. Urea Wholesale and Farm Price References
4.6.2. Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) Price Movements
4.6.3. Impact of the Spring 2026 Price Shock
4.7. Comparison of UK, Italian and German Fertilizer Price Trends
4.8. Impact of Local Production Costs and Logistics on Delivered Prices
4.9. Divergence Between European Fertilizer Prices and Global Benchmarks
4.10. Historical Comparison of Great Britain Farm-Gate Nitrogen Prices

5. Energy Costs and Producer Economics

5.1. Natural Gas as the Primary Cost Driver in European Nitrogen Fertilizer Production
5.2. Dutch TTF Natural Gas Price Developments
5.3. European Gas Storage Levels and Seasonal Supply Risks
5.4. Comparison of September 2026 and Late-2025 Gas Prices
5.5. Estimated Gas Feedstock Cost of European Ammonia Production
5.5.1. Gas Consumption Assumptions per Tonne of Ammonia
5.5.2. Estimated Ammonia Feedstock Cost at September Gas Prices
5.5.3. Comparison with Late-2025 Ammonia Production Costs
5.6. Estimated Gas Feedstock Cost of Urea Production
5.7. Relationship Between Gas Prices and Nitrogen Fertilizer Price Levels
5.8. Profitability of European Nitrogen Fertilizer Producers
5.9. Production Economics of Nitrate and NPK Manufacturers
5.10. Profitability Pressures on Stand-Alone Urea and Merchant Ammonia Producers
5.11. Potential Plant Curtailments During Winter 2026–2027
5.12. AGF Nitrogen Capacity Review and Implications for European Supply
5.13. Yara International Financial and Operating Performance
5.13.1. Second-Quarter 2026 EBITDA Performance
5.13.2. Comparison of EBITDA with Second-Quarter 2025
5.13.3. Changes in Yara's Weighted Average European Gas Costs
5.13.4. Impact of Middle East Shipping Disruptions on Urea Prices
5.13.5. Seasonal Demand Delays and Market Activity
5.14. Comparison of Yara's Weighted Average Gas Costs, Q2 2025–Q2 2026

6. Policy, Trade and Supply Routes

6.1. Overview of European Fertilizer Trade and Policy Developments
6.2. European Union Fertilizer Action Plan
6.3. Natural Gas Dependence of European Nitrogen Fertilizer Production
6.4. Permanent Closures of European Ammonia Production Capacity
6.5. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
6.5.1. Application of CBAM to Imported Fertilizers
6.5.2. Impact on European Fertilizer Import Economics
6.5.3. Import Timing and Front-Loading During Q4 2025
6.5.4. Assessment of CBAM's Contribution to Fertilizer Price Changes
6.6. EU Tariffs on Russian Nitrogen and Phosphate Fertilizers
6.6.1. Existing Import Duty Structure
6.6.2. Additional Levies on Russian Fertilizer Products
6.6.3. Scheduled Tariff Increases During 2026–2028
6.6.4. Implications for Russian Fertilizer Export Volumes
6.7. Shifting European Fertilizer Import Sources
6.7.1. North African Supply Sources
6.7.2. Egyptian and Algerian Urea Exports
6.7.3. Nigerian Fertilizer Supply
6.7.4. Middle Eastern Fertilizer Export Routes
6.8. Impact of EU Tariff Suspensions on Urea and Ammonia Imports
6.9. Comparative Cost Adders Across European Nitrogen Supply Routes
6.10. Middle East Shipping Risks and Supply Chain Exposure
6.11. Implications for European Fertilizer Distributors and Importers
6.12. Supplier Diversification and Safety Stock Requirements
6.13. Outlook for European Nitrogen Import Patterns Through 2027

7. Demand-Side Indicators

7.1. Overview of European Fertilizer Demand Conditions
7.2. Farmer Purchasing Behaviour Following the Spring 2026 Price Shock
7.3. Delayed Autumn and Early-Spring Fertilizer Purchases
7.4. Impact of Natural Gas and Grain Price Uncertainty on Buying Decisions
7.5. Seasonal Demand Backlogs in the European Fertilizer Supply Chain
7.6. Potential November–December 2026 Purchasing Surge
7.7. Logistics Constraints and Seasonal Product Availability
7.8. Crop Economics and Fertilizer Affordability
7.9. Relationship Between Nitrogen Fertilizer Costs and Grain Prices
7.10. Changes in Fertilizer Application Rates
7.11. Fertilizer Substitution Based on Cost per Unit of Nitrogen
7.11.1. Urea as a High-Nitrogen-Content Fertilizer
7.11.2. Ammonium Nitrate and Calcium Ammonium Nitrate
7.11.3. Farmer Preferences for Nitrogen Efficiency and Spreading Practices
7.12. Implications of Farmer Demand Patterns for Delivered Fertilizer Prices
7.13. Outlook for European Fertilizer Demand During the 2026–2027 Season

8. Outlook and Forecast Comparison

8.1. Overview of Global and European Fertilizer Price Forecasts
8.2. Review of Earlier Global Urea Price Forecasts
8.3. World Bank Urea Price Forecast for 2026
8.4. Comparison of Forecast Prices with January–September 2026 Market Performance
8.5. Assessment of the Earlier Forecast Against September Price Levels
8.6. Epignosis Insights Base-Case Forecast for Q4 2026
8.6.1. Global Urea Benchmark Forecast
8.6.2. UK Ammonium Nitrate Delivered Price Forecast
8.6.3. Italian Wholesale Urea Price Forecast
8.7. Key Assumptions Underpinning the Base-Case Forecast
8.7.1. Dutch TTF Gas Price Assumptions
8.7.2. Middle East Shipping Conditions
8.7.3. European Farmer Purchasing Activity
8.7.4. Fertilizer Plant Operating and Curtailment Decisions
8.8. Upside Risks to Fertilizer Price Forecasts
8.8.1. Cold Early-Winter Conditions
8.8.2. Renewed Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
8.8.3. Additional European Ammonia and Urea Plant Curtailments
8.8.4. Potential Tightening of European Nitrogen Supply
8.9. Downside Risks to Fertilizer Price Forecasts
8.9.1. Declining Natural Gas Prices
8.9.2. Lower European Nitrogen Production Costs
8.9.3. Reduced Delivered Prices for Nitrate Fertilizers
8.10. Comparison of Global Urea and European Delivered Nitrogen Price Trends
8.11. Forecast Sensitivity to Energy Prices, Trade Policy and Seasonal Demand

9. Epignosis Insights Outlook for October 2026

9.1. Overview of the October 2026 European Fertilizer Market Outlook
9.2. Global Urea Benchmark Price Forecast
9.3. UK-Produced Ammonium Nitrate Price Forecast
9.4. Italian Wholesale Urea Price Forecast
9.5. Key Indicators to Monitor in October 2026
9.5.1. Dutch TTF Natural Gas Prices
9.5.2. European Gas Storage and Storage Injections
9.5.3. European Ammonia Producer Curtailment Announcements
9.5.4. Further EU Tariff Measures on Russian Fertilizers
9.5.5. Indian Urea Tender Volumes and Global Price Implications
9.6. Expected Market Conditions Ahead of the 2026–2027 Application Season
9.7. Procurement Guidance for European Fertilizer Distributors
9.7.1. Forward Coverage of Spring Nitrogen Requirements
9.7.2. Managing Seasonal Logistics and Availability Risks
9.7.3. Supplier Diversification and Import Planning
9.8. Procurement Guidance for Farmers
9.8.1. Comparing Fertilizers by Cost per Kilogram of Nitrogen
9.8.2. Assessing Urea, Ammonium Nitrate and Other Nitrogen Products
9.8.3. Timing Potash Purchases Amid Declining Prices
9.9. October 2026 European Fertilizer Price Driver Matrix

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 1. What Was the Global Urea Benchmark Price in September 2026?
FAQ 2. How Much Did UK Ammonium Nitrate Cost at the End of September 2026?
FAQ 3. Why Are European Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices Higher Than Global Benchmarks?
FAQ 4. Which Fertilizer Prices Declined in September 2026?
FAQ 5. What Is the Epignosis Insights Fertilizer Price Outlook for October 2026?

10. Sources and Methodology

10.1. Overview of the Europe Fertilizer Price Tracker Methodology
10.2. Epignosis Insights as the Primary Compilation and Assessment Source
10.3. Global Fertilizer Benchmark Data Sources
10.3.1. World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet)
10.4. European Farm-Gate and Wholesale Price Data Sources
10.4.1. Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB)
10.4.2. Farmers Weekly
10.4.3. Turin Chamber of Commerce and CLAL TESEO
10.4.4. Euronews
10.5. Natural Gas and Fertilizer Production Economics Data Sources
10.5.1. Discovery Alert
10.5.2. Argus Media
10.5.3. Yara International Second-Quarter 2026 Report
10.6. European Fertilizer Policy and Trade Data Sources
10.6.1. CRU / BCInsight Coverage of the EU Fertilizer Action Plan
10.6.2. Fertilizers Europe Statements on CBAM
10.6.3. Boerenbusiness Coverage of EU Levies on Russian Fertilizers
10.6.4. World Bank Fertilizer Outlook Reporting
10.7. Price Units, Market Coverage and Reporting Conventions
10.7.1. Global Benchmark Prices in US Dollars per Tonne
10.7.2. Great Britain Delivered-to-Farm Prices in Pounds Sterling
10.7.3. Italian Wholesale Prices in Euros per Tonne
10.7.4. Natural Gas Prices in Euros per Megawatt-Hour
10.8. Calculation of Monthly and Year-on-Year Price Changes
10.9. Estimation of Ammonia and Urea Gas Feedstock Costs
10.10. Forecasting Methodology and Indicative Price Ranges
10.11. Treatment of Estimated and Non-Published Price Values
10.12. External Source Attribution and Data Limitations