New Epignosis Insights Tracker Finds Saudi Coffee Prices Stay Flat Even as Global Bean Costs Fall
Epignosis Insights, a Global Market Research and publishing firm, today released its latest Saudi Arabia Specialty Coffee Price Tracker, documenting a widening gap between falling global green-bean prices and a Saudi retail environment that has barely moved over the first half of 2026.
Global Bean Prices Fall, But Saudi Retail Holds Steady
The report finds that the International Coffee Organization's Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 248.90 US cents per pound in June 2026, down 2.8% from May and 16.2% below January's 296.89 cents, as Brazil's National Supply Company repeatedly raised its 2026/27 production forecast to a record 66.7 million bags. Yet Saudi Arabia's General Authority for Statistics recorded consumer price inflation holding at a steady 1.8% year-on-year across most of the same period a divergence the report identifies as its central finding. “Green-bean costs are falling, but very little of that relief appears to be reaching Saudi menus or retail shelves,” the tracker notes, pointing to freight, currency, and premiumization dynamics as the primary forces absorbing the difference before it reaches consumers.
A Thin, Volatile Global Market
The report traces the I-CIP's path through the first half of 2026 in detail: a 9.9% drop to 267.57 cents in February, a brief 2.3% rebound in March tied to Strait of Hormuz-linked shipping cost concerns, then a decisive slide through April, May, and June. Notably, the composite price briefly touched 231.96 US cents per pound on June 9 its lowest level in nearly two years before rebounding 17.4% to close the month at a two-month high of 272.39 cents, a swing the report says illustrates just how thin the market's liquidity has become even as headline monthly averages look calm.
Premium Arabica Grades Show Far More Resilience
The tracker's breakdown of the ICO's four coffee groups reveals a pattern directly relevant to Saudi Arabia's specialty segment. Colombian Milds, the grade most widely used by premium Saudi roasters, actually rose 0.4% in June to 324.60 cents per pound, while Other Milds slipped a modest 2.4%. Brazilian Naturals fell the hardest, down 7.4%, reflecting the weight of Brazil's record harvest, while Robusta gained 1.7% on continued demand from instant-coffee producers navigating elevated freight costs. The report concludes that Colombian Milds and Other Milds — the grades that actually matter for premium Saudi café menus have shown far more price resilience than the headline composite figure suggests.
“Freight normalization, not the ICO composite price, is likely to be the more consequential variable for Saudi retail pricing over the next two quarters.”
Red Sea Freight Costs Identified as the Hidden Cost Layer
A significant portion of the report is devoted to explaining why falling commodity prices have not translated into retail relief. Citing 2026 shipping-industry analysis, the tracker finds that Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb disruptions have kept most container lines on the longer Cape of Good Hope routing, still pricing Asia-Europe lanes 25–40% above pre-crisis baselines as of mid-2026. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated for vessels transiting Red Sea-adjacent high-risk zones, creating what the report calls a cost floor for Saudi importers bringing green coffee through Jeddah Islamic Port — one that has not eased in step with the ICO's falling composite price.
Wholesale Prices Signal Building Pressure
The report also flags a widening gap between Saudi Arabia's flat consumer inflation and an accelerating Wholesale Price Index, which rose 4.6% year-on-year in May 2026, up from 2.9% in February. That gap, the tracker notes, is a classic signal of margin compression working its way through café operators and roasters before it ever reaches a posted menu price — with food and beverage carrying the single largest weight, 22%, in Saudi Arabia's CPI basket.
Company Data and Domestic Production Add Further Context
The tracker cites first-half 2026 results from publicly listed regional operator Americana Restaurants International PLC, which reported Saudi Arabia revenue of $336 million, up 7% year-on-year, alongside management commentary that most 2026 commodity contracts were already locked in even as logistics and insurance costs were flagged as a second-half risk — a combination the report says mirrors precisely the freight-driven cost layer identified in its broader analysis. Longer term, the report tracks the Public Investment Fund's Saudi Coffee Company, which is investing SAR 1.2 billion over ten years to lift domestic production from roughly 300 tons annually to a targeted 2,500 tons, though the tracker notes this would still cover only a fraction of projected national consumption of roughly 28,700 tons annually.