Detailed Table of Contents – Global Nickel Price Tracker
Global Nickel Price Tracker
Weekly Report | Week 38, 2026
1. Executive Summary
1.1 Weekly Nickel Price Movement
1.2 Key Market Developments
1.3 Major Supply-Side Drivers
1.4 Demand-Side Developments
1.5 Inventory and Market Structure
1.6 Indonesia Policy Developments
1.7 Key Risks and Opportunities
1.8 Four-Week Price Outlook
2. Weekly Nickel Price Performance
2.1 LME Nickel Cash Price Performance
2.2 LME Three-Month Nickel Price Performance
2.3 Daily Price Movements During Week 38
2.4 Weekly High and Low Prices
2.5 Week-on-Week Price Change
2.6 Cash-to-Three-Month Price Spread
2.7 Early Week 39 Price Movement
2.8 Weekly Nickel Price Snapshot
2.9 Eight-Week LME Nickel Price Trend
3. Year-to-Date Nickel Price Context
3.1 January–September 2026 Price Evolution
3.2 Monthly Average Nickel Prices
3.3 2026 Year-to-Date Average Price
3.4 May 2026 Price Peak and Subsequent Correction
3.5 September 2026 Month-to-Date Performance
3.6 Impact of Indonesian Supply Policies on the 2026 Price Cycle
3.7 Second-Quarter Rally versus Third-Quarter Price Weakness
4. Nickel Inventories and Market Structure
4.1 LME Warehouse Inventory Trends
4.2 Week-on-Week Inventory Changes
4.3 Inventory Accumulation Since July 2026
4.4 Year-to-Date Change in LME Stocks
4.5 Implications of Rising Exchange Inventories
4.6 Cash-to-Three-Month Spread
4.7 Contango and Storage Economics
4.8 Relationship Between Inventory and Nickel Prices
4.9 Market Structure Signals for Near-Term Prices
5. Supply-Side Analysis: Indonesia Policy Reset
5.1 Indonesia Nickel Ore Policy Developments
5.2 ESDM Ministerial Decree No. 363.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026
5.3 Revised Nickel Ore Benchmark Price
5.4 Impact on 1.2% Nickel Limonite HPM
5.5 Comparison of Previous and Revised HPM
5.6 Nickel Mineral Reference Price (HMA)
5.7 Implications for HPAL Feed Costs
5.8 Impact on Nickel Producers and Processors
5.9 Implications for Nickel Cost Curves
5.10 RKAB Quota Discipline and Mining Supply
5.11 Indonesia's Role in Global Nickel Production and Refining
5.12 Delays in Indonesian HPAL Expansion Projects
5.13 Medium-Term Supply Implications
6. Supply-Side Analysis: Producer Performance
6.1 Global Nickel Producer Performance
6.2 Vale Nickel Production and Sales
6.3 Vale Realised Nickel Prices
6.4 Production Trends Outside Indonesia
6.5 Indonesian NPI and HPAL Cost Position
6.6 Canadian and Australian Sulphide Producers
6.7 Latin American Ferronickel Producers
6.8 Global Nickel Cost Curve
6.9 Producer Margin Sensitivity to Lower Nickel Prices
6.10 Potential Production Curtailments
6.11 Potential Price Floor from High-Cost Producers
7. Demand-Side Analysis: Stainless Steel and Batteries
7.1 Stainless Steel Demand Overview
7.2 Chinese Stainless Steel Market Performance
7.3 Shanghai Futures Exchange Stainless Steel Prices
7.4 Chinese Stainless Steel Mill Margins
7.5 Potential Restocking Ahead of Golden Week
7.6 Chinese Economic and Consumption Support Measures
7.7 Global Steel Excess Capacity
7.8 Nickel Demand from Battery Applications
7.9 Nickel Sulfate Procurement Trends
7.10 Impact of LFP Battery Chemistry Adoption
7.11 Chinese Precursor Producer Operating Rates
7.12 Stainless Steel versus Battery Demand Outlook
8. Global Nickel Market Balance and Macro Backdrop
8.1 Global Primary Nickel Production
8.2 Global Nickel Consumption
8.3 2026 Global Nickel Market Balance
8.4 Historical Market Surpluses and Deficits
8.5 Inventory Overhang and Deficit Absorption
8.6 Battery Demand Growth versus Earlier Expectations
8.7 Impact of LFP and Plug-in Hybrid Adoption
8.8 Global Steel Market Conditions
8.9 US Dollar and Base Metals
8.10 US Interest Rate Expectations
8.11 Macroeconomic Risks to Nickel Prices
9. Nickel Price Driver Map
9.1 Key Bearish Price Drivers
9.2 Key Bullish Price Drivers
9.3 Indonesia HPM Reset
9.4 Rising LME Inventories
9.5 Nickel Salt Demand
9.6 Morowali NPI Production Curtailments
9.7 Indonesian RKAB Quota Discipline
9.8 Chinese Stainless Steel Margin Improvement
9.9 Relative Strength of Bullish and Bearish Drivers
9.10 Net Near-Term Market Bias
10. Nickel Price Outlook: Next Four Weeks
10.1 Base-Case Price Scenario
10.2 Base-Case Trading Range
10.3 Bull-Case Scenario
10.4 Bear-Case Scenario
10.5 Key Assumptions Behind Each Scenario
10.6 Expected Impact of Chinese Restocking
10.7 Potential Impact of Indonesian Supply Curtailments
10.8 Inventory Thresholds to Monitor
10.9 Contango and Market Structure Indicators
10.10 Key Indicators for Procurement Teams
10.11 Key Indicators for Nickel Producers
10.12 Key Indicators for Investors
10.13 Four-Week Price Scenario Summary
11. Frequently Asked Questions
11.1 What Was the Average LME Nickel Price in Week 38, 2026?
11.2 What Was the Lowest Nickel Price Recorded in 2026?
11.3 Why Did Nickel Prices Decline During Week 38?
11.4 What Was the Impact of Indonesia's Revised Nickel Ore Benchmark?
11.5 Are LME Nickel Inventories Rising or Falling?
11.6 What Does the Current Contango Indicate?
11.7 How Is Stainless Steel Demand Affecting Nickel Prices?
11.8 How Is Battery Demand Affecting Nickel Prices?
11.9 What Is the Current Global Nickel Market Balance?
11.10 What Is the Near-Term Nickel Price Outlook?
11.11 What Are the Main Bullish Risks?
11.12 What Are the Main Bearish Risks?
List of Tables
Table 1: Weekly Nickel Price Snapshot
Table 2: Monthly Average LME Nickel Cash Prices, 2026
Table 3: LME Nickel Inventory Changes
Table 4: Indonesia Nickel Ore Benchmark Price – Previous versus Revised
Table 5: Indonesia Nickel Mineral Reference Prices
Table 6: Major Nickel Producer Performance
Table 7: Global Nickel Market Balance, 2023–2026F
Table 8: Key Bullish and Bearish Nickel Price Drivers
Table 9: Four-Week Nickel Price Scenarios
List of Figures
Figure 1: LME Nickel Cash and Three-Month Prices – Eight-Week Trend
Figure 2: Monthly Average LME Nickel Cash Prices – January to September 2026
Figure 3: LME Nickel Warehouse Stocks versus Nickel Cash Price
Figure 4: Daily Cash-to-Three-Month Spread Since July 2026
Figure 5: Old versus Revised HPM for 1.2% Ni Ore and Indonesian Ore CIF Prices
Figure 6: Global Primary Nickel Market Balance, 2023–2026F
Figure 7: Epignosis Insights Nickel Price Driver Map – Week 38, 2026
Figure 8: Four-Week LME Nickel Cash Price Scenarios
Sources and References
LME Settlement and Inventory Data
Indonesia ESDM Reference Prices and Policy Data
Producer Reports and Company Disclosures
Stainless Steel Market Data
Battery and Nickel Sulfate Market Data
INSG Market Balance Data
Macroeconomic and Industry Sources