1. Executive Summary

   1.1 September 2026 Price Decline and Market Volatility

   1.2 China EXW Benchmark Performance

   1.3 Key Drivers of the September Sell Off

   1.4 Supply Side Support and CATL Jianxiawo Mine Developments

   1.5 CIF Asia Price Assessment and October Outlook

2. Monthly Price Snapshot

   2.1 China EXW Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate Price

   2.2 Alternative China Spot Price Series

   2.3 China EXW Price on a US Dollar Basis

   2.4 CIF Asia Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate Price

   2.5 Spodumene SC6 FOB Australia Price

   2.6 China Lithium Carbonate Production and Monthly Change

   2.7 Epignosis Insights October Price Range

3. Price Movement Analysis: How September Unfolded

   3.1 Opening Price Conditions and Failed August Rally

   3.2 Early September Price Decline and Futures Performance

   3.3 Shanghai Metals Market Index and Futures Curve

   3.4 Mid September Price Break and Third Quarter Decline

   3.5 Impact of the 16 September Inventory Estimate Revision

   3.6 Futures Liquidation and Delayed Seaborne Market Reaction

   3.7 Figure 1: China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate EXW Price Markers

   3.8 Figure 2: Q3 2026 Lithium Price Changes and the 16 September Shock

4. Production, Inventory and Price Transmission

   4.1 China Lithium Carbonate Production in September

   4.2 Feedstock Constraints and Revised Production Schedules

   4.3 Converter Contracting and Spot Market Behaviour

   4.4 October Production Outlook

   4.5 Perceived Inventory Growth Versus Independent Destocking Signals

   4.6 Price Transmission from China to CIF Asia, Europe and North America

   4.7 Regional Delivered Price Spreads and Import Cost Factors

   4.8 Timing of Price Adjustment for Non Chinese Buyers

   4.9 Figure 3: Lithium Carbonate Price Transmission Chain

5. Supply Side Developments

   5.1 CATL Jianxiawo Mine Licence Revocation and Care and Maintenance

   5.2 Environmental Review and Potential Restart Timeline

   5.3 Financial Performance of Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium

   5.4 Restart of Australian Hard Rock Lithium Capacity

   5.5 Mineral Resources Bald Hill and Core Lithium Finniss Restarts

   5.6 PLS Group Production Performance and FY26 Results

   5.7 Balance Between Returning Supply and Mine Disruption Risks

6. Demand Side Indicators

   6.1 China New Energy Vehicle Sales and Market Share

   6.2 Domestic Vehicle Market Conditions and Export Support

   6.3 Global Battery Demand Growth

   6.4 Battery Energy Storage Systems as a Demand Driver

   6.5 LFP and NCM Cathode Production Trends

   6.6 China Cell Capacity Approval Pause and Sentiment Risks

   6.7 Figure 4: Lithium Demand Growth Versus Supply Growth

7. Producer Economics

   7.1 Albemarle Realised Lithium Prices in Q2 2026

   7.2 Energy Storage Revenue and Sales Performance

   7.3 Contract Pricing and the Lag in Realised Prices

   7.4 Expected Timing of Cost Relief for Cathode and Cell Makers

   7.5 Producer Margins and Potential Curtailment Risk

   7.6 Figure 5: Producer Realised Prices Versus Market Benchmarks

8. Outlook and Forecast Comparison

   8.1 Medium Term Global Lithium Demand and Supply Growth

   8.2 Government and Bank Price Forecasts

   8.3 Energy Storage Demand and Potential Future Deficits

   8.4 China Lithium Ion Battery Consumption Tax

   8.5 Cochilco Price Stabilisation Outlook

   8.6 Epignosis Insights Q4 2026 Base Case and Forecast Range

   8.7 Base Case Assumptions for Jianxiawo, Australian Supply and Sentiment

   8.8 Upside Scenario: Extended Supply Constraints and Demand Recovery

   8.9 Downside Scenario: CATL Order Losses and Continued Output Growth

   8.10 Scenario Probabilities and Market Implications

   8.11 Figure 6: Lithium Price Views Versus Current Market

9. Epignosis Insights Outlook for October 2026

   9.1 China EXW Battery Grade Price Range

   9.2 Expected Post Holiday Restocking and Recovery Bias

   9.3 Key Signposts: Jianxiawo Review and CATL Supplier Switching

   9.4 Guangzhou Futures Positioning and October Production Data

   9.5 Australian Ramp Up Progress

   9.6 Procurement Guidance for Cathode and Cell Makers

   9.7 Producer Price Risk and Fixed Price Contract Guidance

   9.8 Figure 7: Lithium Carbonate Price Driver Matrix for October 2026

10. Frequently Asked Questions

   10.1 China Lithium Carbonate Closing Price at September End

   10.2 Monthly Price Decline

   10.3 Cause of the Mid September Price Crash

   10.4 Key Supply Side Support for Prices

   10.5 October 2026 Price Range

11. Sources and Methodology

   11.1 Data Compilation and Epignosis Insights Assessments

   11.2 China Spot Prices and Futures Market Data

   11.3 Price Reporting and Inventory Revision Sources

   11.4 Production Data and Converter Market Behaviour

   11.5 Mine Status, Producer Results and Supply Developments

   11.6 EV Sales and Global Battery Demand Sources

   11.7 Producer Economics and Government Forecast Sources

   11.8 Price Forecasts, Tax Policy and Market Outlook Sources

   11.9 Price Basis, VAT Treatment and Indicative Assessments

   11.10 Disclaimer