1. Executive Summary

   1.1 Week 41 Market Performance and Closing Price

   1.2 Euro Equivalent Benchmark and Indicative Delivered Cost

   1.3 European Supply Risks and Market Balance

   1.4 Week 42 Trading Range and Key Outlook

2. Weekly Price Snapshot

   2.1 LME Three Month Zinc Closing Price

   2.2 Official Cash Price and Cash to Three Month Spread

   2.3 LME Warehouse Inventory Levels

   2.4 Euro Equivalent Price and EUR/USD Reference Rate

   2.5 Rotterdam SHG Premium and Delivered North West Europe Cost

3. Weekly Price Movement Analysis

   3.1 Price Weakness at the Start of the Week

   3.2 Six Week Low and Late September Price Decline

   3.3 Impact of China’s Golden Week Holiday on Liquidity

   3.4 Second Half Rebound and Friday Closing Performance

   3.5 Zinc Performance Relative to Other LME Base Metals

   3.6 Figure 1: Key LME Zinc Price Markers, Late August to 9 October 2026

   3.7 Figure 2: Week on Week Change in LME Base Metals

4. Market Structure: Spreads and Inventories

   4.1 Late August Prompt Market Tightness

   4.2 Cash to Three Month Backwardation and Its Normalisation

   4.3 LME Warehouse Stock Movements

   4.4 Implications for European Prompt Metal Availability

   4.5 Potential Effect on Regional Physical Premiums

   4.6 Figure 3: LME Zinc Cash to Three Month Backwardation and Warehouse Stocks

5. European Physical Market, Premiums and Currency

   5.1 European SHG Zinc Pricing Mechanism

   5.2 2026 Contract Premium Negotiations

   5.3 Rotterdam Spot Premium Assessment

   5.4 Buyer Coverage and Galvanizer Purchasing Behaviour

   5.5 EUR/USD Movements and Their Impact on European Buyers

   5.6 Indicative Delivered Cost Build Up for North West Europe

   5.7 Procurement Relevance for Die Casting, Brass and Galvanizing

   5.8 Figure 4: Indicative Delivered SHG Zinc Cost Stack

6. Supply Side Developments in Europe

   6.1 Nyrstar Budel Smelter Strategic Review

   6.2 Budel Capacity, Operating Status and Curtailment Risk

   6.3 Nyrstar Auby Production and Recycled Feed Advantage

   6.4 Boliden Odda Expansion and Ramp Up Progress

   6.5 Garpenberg Mine Disruption and Concentrate Supply

   6.6 European Smelter Production Risk Watchlist

   6.7 Figure 6: Selected European Zinc Smelters, Status Watchlist

7. Demand Side Indicators

   7.1 Galvanizing as the Core European Zinc End Use

   7.2 EU Steel Consumption Outlook for 2026 and 2027

   7.3 Infrastructure and Renewable Energy Demand

   7.4 Automotive and White Goods Demand Conditions

   7.5 Global Refined Zinc Demand and Production Forecast

   7.6 Global Market Balance and Its Limitations as a Price Signal

8. Analyst Outlook and Forecast Comparison

   8.1 Third Party Zinc Price Forecasts for Q4 2026

   8.2 Comparison with Current Market Pricing

   8.3 Epignosis Insights Base Case and Forecast Range

   8.4 Key Assumptions Behind the Base Case

   8.5 Budel Curtailment and Chinese Export Scenarios

   8.6 Figure 5: Q4 2026 Zinc Price Views Versus Current Spot

9. Epignosis Insights Outlook for Week 42

   9.1 Forecast Trading Range for 12 to 16 October 2026

   9.2 Key Market Signposts and Monitoring Indicators

   9.3 LME Inventory Threshold and Price Implications

   9.4 Updates on Budel and Odda

   9.5 EUR/USD Sensitivity and Delivered Cost Implications

   9.6 Procurement Guidance for European Consumers

   9.7 Figure 7: Europe Zinc Price Driver Matrix for Week 42

10. Frequently Asked Questions

   10.1 Week 41 Closing Price

   10.2 Weekly Price Change

   10.3 Zinc Benchmark and Delivered Cost in Euros

   10.4 Key European Supply Risk

   10.5 Week 42 Price Outlook

11. Sources and Methodology

   11.1 Data Compilation and Epignosis Insights Assessments

   11.2 Exchange and Market Data Sources

   11.3 Premium, Currency and Delivered Cost Methodology

   11.4 Company and Industry Supply Sources

   11.5 Demand, Global Balance and Analyst Forecast Sources

   11.6 Disclaimer