1. Executive Summary
1.1 Global Sugar Price Environment
1.2 Recent Sugar Price Rally and Consolidation
1.3 NY Raw Sugar No.11 Price Movement
1.4 London White Sugar No.5 Price Movement
1.5 Brazil Raw Sugar Price Movement
1.6 Thailand White Sugar Price Movement
1.7 Shift from Global Surplus to Potential Deficit
1.8 India's Export Policy Impact
1.9 Brazil's Sugarcane-to-Ethanol Diversion
1.10 Global Supply-Demand Balance
1.11 Key Market Developments
1.12 Outlook for the 2026/27 Marketing Year
1.13 Key Implications for Buyers, Refiners and Producers

2. Weekly Sugar Price Tracker
2.1 Overview of Global Sugar Benchmarks
2.2 NY Raw Sugar No.11 Benchmark
2.3 London White Sugar No.5 Benchmark
2.4 Brazil Raw Sugar Benchmark
2.5 Thailand White Sugar Benchmark
2.6 Four-Week Price Comparison
2.7 Regional and Contract Price Differentials
2.8 Raw Sugar Versus White Sugar Price Movement
2.9 Nine-Week Price Trend
2.10 Global Sugar Price Consolidation

3. Week-on-Week Price Movement
3.1 Global Week-on-Week Sugar Price Movement
3.2 NY Raw Sugar No.11 Weekly Movement
3.3 London White Sugar No.5 Weekly Movement
3.4 Brazil Raw Sugar Weekly Movement
3.5 Thailand White Sugar Weekly Movement
3.6 First Simultaneous Pullback Across Benchmarks
3.7 Recent Multi-Month Price Highs
3.8 Four-Week Price Appreciation
3.9 Short-Term Price Correction
3.10 Implications of the Current Price Pullback

4. Structural Drivers Behind the 2026 Sugar Price Cycle
4.1 India's Sugar Export Ban
4.2 Brazil's Ethanol Pivot
4.3 Global Sugar Supply-Demand Rebalancing
4.4 Transition from Surplus to Deficit
4.5 Analyst and Consultancy Forecast Revisions
4.6 Brazil Cane Allocation
4.7 Sugar Versus Ethanol Economics
4.8 Corporate Sugar Industry Performance
4.9 Global Production Outlook
4.10 Global Export Outlook
4.11 Ethanol Parity Mechanism
4.12 Interaction Between Crude Oil, Ethanol and Sugar Prices

5. India's Sugar Export Ban
5.1 Overview of India's Export Policy
5.2 Directorate General of Foreign Trade Notification
5.3 Transition from Restricted Exports to Full Prohibition
5.4 Raw Sugar Export Restrictions
5.5 White Sugar Export Restrictions
5.6 Refined Sugar Export Restrictions
5.7 Duration of the Export Ban
5.8 EU and US Tariff-Rate-Quota Exemptions
5.9 Government-to-Government Exemptions
5.10 Impact on Global Seaborne Sugar Supply
5.11 Impact on Global Sugar Balance
5.12 Potential Extension Beyond September 2026
5.13 Implications for Global Sugar Buyers and Refiners

6. Brazil's Ethanol Pivot
6.1 Brazil Center-South Sugar Industry
6.2 Sugarcane Crushing and Allocation
6.3 Shift from Sugar Toward Ethanol
6.4 Sugar Mix Versus Ethanol Mix
6.5 Impact of Higher Crude Oil Prices
6.6 Impact of Domestic Gasoline Prices
6.7 Decline in Exportable Sugar Volumes
6.8 Impact on Global Raw Sugar Balance
6.9 Brazil's Continuing Role as a Major Exporter
6.10 Outlook for the 2026/27 Center-South Crush

7. Global Sugar Supply-Demand Balance
7.1 Historical Global Sugar Balance
7.2 2025/26 Global Surplus
7.3 2026/27 Global Balance Expectations
7.4 Earlier Surplus Forecasts
7.5 Downward Revisions to Surplus Estimates
7.6 Emergence of Global Deficit Forecasts
7.7 Czarnikow Balance Forecast
7.8 StoneX Balance Forecast
7.9 Green Pool Commodity Specialists Forecast
7.10 Covrig Analytics Forecast
7.11 Cross-Consultancy Forecast Comparison
7.12 Factors Driving the Balance Shift
7.13 Implications for Global Sugar Prices

8. Brazil Cane Allocation: Sugar Versus Ethanol
8.1 Center-South Cane Allocation
8.2 Historical Sugar-Ethanol Mix
8.3 2025/26 Versus 2026/27 Cane Allocation
8.4 Declining Sugar Mix
8.5 Increasing Ethanol Mix
8.6 Impact on Sugar Production
8.7 CZ App Production Estimate
8.8 São Paulo Cane Allocation
8.9 Ethanol Return Versus Sugar Return
8.10 Implications for Exportable Sugar Supply

9. Corporate Disclosures: Raízen and Sugar Industry Economics
9.1 Raízen Business Overview
9.2 2025/26 Crop-Year Financial Performance
9.3 Consolidated Revenue Performance
9.4 Net Loss Development
9.5 Sugar Business Performance
9.6 Ethanol Business Performance
9.7 Bioenergy Business Performance
9.8 Impact of Sugar-Ethanol Economics
9.9 Producer Margin Pressure
9.10 Implications for Brazilian Sugar Producers

10. US Government Sugar Market Outlook
10.1 USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Outlook
10.2 Global Sugar Production Forecast
10.3 Brazil Production Outlook
10.4 European Union Production Outlook
10.5 US Production Outlook
10.6 Thailand Production Outlook
10.7 India Production Outlook
10.8 Global Sugar Export Forecast
10.9 Brazil Export Outlook
10.10 European Union Export Outlook
10.11 Morocco and Pakistan Export Outlook
10.12 Australia Export Outlook
10.13 Impact of India's Export Ban on Global Trade

11. Ethanol Parity Mechanism
11.1 Sugarcane Flexibility in Brazil
11.2 Sugar Versus Ethanol Production Economics
11.3 Domestic Gasoline Prices
11.4 Crude Oil Price Influence
11.5 Ethanol Profitability
11.6 Sugarcane Allocation Decisions
11.7 Impact on Export Sugar Availability
11.8 Impact on NY Raw Sugar No.11
11.9 Ethanol-Sugar Arbitrage
11.10 Implications for Global Sugar Price Formation

12. Global Sugar Price Outlook
12.1 Near-Term Price Outlook
12.2 Price Consolidation After the Recent Rally
12.3 NY Raw Sugar No.11 Outlook
12.4 London White Sugar No.5 Outlook
12.5 Brazil Raw Sugar Outlook
12.6 Thailand White Sugar Outlook
12.7 India Export Policy Scenario
12.8 Brazil Cane Allocation Scenario
12.9 2026/27 Global Deficit Scenario
12.10 Short-Term Pullback Scenario
12.11 Upside Risks
12.12 Downside Risks
12.13 Q4 2026 Price Implications
12.14 Implications for Industrial Buyers and Refiners
12.15 Implications for Producers and Exporters
12.16 Hedging and Forward-Coverage Considerations

13. Key Market Indicators to Monitor
13.1 NY Raw Sugar No.11 Price
13.2 London White Sugar No.5 Price
13.3 Brazil Raw Sugar FOB Price
13.4 Thailand White Sugar FOB Price
13.5 India's Sugar Export Policy
13.6 India's Domestic Sugar Availability
13.7 Brazil Cane Allocation
13.8 Brazil Sugar Production
13.9 Brazil Ethanol Production
13.10 Crude Oil Prices
13.11 Domestic Brazilian Gasoline Prices
13.12 Global Sugar Production
13.13 Global Sugar Exports
13.14 2026/27 Global Sugar Balance Forecasts
13.15 Thai Sugar Supply Conditions

14. Methodology and Sourcing Note
14.1 Scope of the Weekly Sugar Price Tracker
14.2 Benchmark Selection
14.3 NY Raw Sugar No.11 Assessment
14.4 London White Sugar No.5 Assessment
14.5 Brazil Raw Sugar Assessment
14.6 Thailand White Sugar Assessment
14.7 FOB and CIF Pricing Conventions
14.8 Weekly Data Compilation
14.9 Public Disclosure Sources
14.10 Government Sources
14.11 Industry Association Sources
14.12 Corporate Investor Disclosures
14.13 Consultancy Forecasts
14.14 Financial and Trade News Sources
14.15 Data Validation and Cross-Checking
14.16 Indicative Versus Transaction-Grade Pricing
14.17 Limitations of the Price Tracker
14.18 Weekly Update Frequency

15. Frequently Asked Questions
15.1 Why Are Global Sugar Prices Rising in 2026?
15.2 Why Is India Restricting Sugar Exports?
15.3 Why Is Brazil Producing Less Sugar This Season?
15.4 Is the Current Global Sugar Price Trend Rising or Easing?
15.5 Which Sugar Benchmark Is Most Exposed to Further Upside?
15.6 How Is India's Export Ban Affecting Global Sugar Prices?
15.7 How Is Brazil's Ethanol Production Affecting Sugar Supply?
15.8 Why Have Global Sugar Deficit Forecasts Increased?
15.9 What Is Driving London White Sugar's Premium?
15.10 What Is the Outlook for Sugar Prices Through Q4 2026?
15.11 Could India's Export Ban Be Extended?
15.12 How Does Crude Oil Affect Brazilian Sugar Prices?
16. Tables and Figures
16.1 Weekly Sugar Benchmark Prices
16.2 Nine-Week Global Sugar Price Trend
16.3 Week-on-Week Price Movement
16.4 Global Sugar Balance Forecast Revisions
16.5 Brazil Center-South Cane Allocation
16.6 Global Sugar Production Forecast
16.7 Global Sugar Export Forecast
16.8 Sugar Versus Ethanol Economics
16.9 Key Sugar Price Drivers
16.10 Global Sugar Price Outlook