EU ETS Carbon Credit (EU ETS) Price Tracker
Weekly Pricing & Market Intelligence Report
1. Executive Summary
Overview of the eight-week EUA price movement, the July six-month high, the correction to €82.48/t, and the principal supply and policy drivers behind the trend.
2. Weekly Price Snapshot
Consolidated weekly data table covering the ICE EUA Dec-26 futures benchmark, the EEX spot auction clearing price, and week-on-week percentage change, July 4 – August 29, 2026.
Table 1 Weekly EU ETS allowance (EUA) price build-up, July 4 – August 29, 2026
Figure 1 ICE EUA December-2026 benchmark price trend, weekly (EUR/tCO₂)
3. Market Overview: Benchmark and Auction Dynamics
Analysis of the ICE EUA futures rally to a six-month high on July 22, the single-day correction to €83.80/t, and the close tracking relationship between the futures benchmark and the EEX spot auction clearing price.
Figure 2 ICE EUA futures benchmark versus EEX spot auction clearing price, weekly comparison (EUR/tCO₂)
4. EU ETS Policy Landscape: Reform Proposal, CBAM and the Market Stability Reserve
Regulatory review covering the European Commission's July 2026 EU ETS reform proposal, the CBAM compliance phase that began January 1, 2026, the free-allocation phase-out schedule, and Market Stability Reserve auction-volume constraints through August 2026.
5. Industrial and Company Perspective: ArcelorMittal and CBAM-Exposed Sectors
Company-level cross-check drawing on ArcelorMittal's Q2 2026 earnings call, covering CBAM and Tariff Rate Quota impacts on European steel competitiveness, import-volume reductions, and the mechanical link between EUA prices and CBAM certificate costs.
6. Consulting Outlook: Supply Deficit and the 2026 Bull Case
ABN AMRO research on the 2026 EU ETS supply deficit, the €100/t year-end price target, key upside and downside risks, and shifting analyst forecasts following the Commission's reform proposal.
Figure 3 Quarterly average EU ETS allowance (EUA) price trend, Q4 2025 – Q3 2026 (partial)
7. Downstream Impact and Near-Term Outlook
Assessment of cost pass-through to power generators, industrial emitters and CBAM-covered importers, the psychological significance of the €80/t level, and the near-term catalysts to watch into September 2026.
Figure 4 Week-over-week percentage change in the ICE EUA Dec-26 benchmark
8. Frequently Asked Questions
Five one-line FAQs covering the current EUA price, the July price spike, the EUA-to-CBAM certificate price link, the 2026 supply deficit, and the near-term price outlook.
8.1 What is the current EU ETS carbon allowance (EUA) price?
8.2 Why did EUA prices spike to a six-month high in July 2026?
8.3 How does the EU ETS price affect CBAM certificate costs?
8.4 Is the EU carbon market facing a supply deficit in 2026?
8.5 What is the near-term outlook for EU carbon prices?
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current EU ETS carbon allowance (EUA) price?
The ICE EUA December-2026 benchmark closed at approximately €82.48 per tonne of CO2 on August 28, 2026, per the Epignosis Insights tracker.
Why did EUA prices spike to a six-month high in July 2026?
Tightening allowance supply expectations under the Market Stability Reserve, combined with speculative buying ahead of the EU ETS reform proposal, pushed the Dec-26 contract to €86.60/t on July 22 before correcting.
How does the EU ETS price affect CBAM certificate costs?
CBAM certificate prices for the 2026 compliance year are set to reflect the quarterly average of EU ETS allowance prices, directly linking this tracker's EUA readings to future carbon border costs.
Is the EU carbon market facing a supply deficit in 2026?
Yes; consulting-firm research points to a year-on-year reduction in allowance supply of roughly 180 million tonnes in 2026, driven by a tightening cap and reduced free allocations.
What is the near-term outlook for EU carbon prices?
Bank research has set a year-end 2026 target near €100 per tonne on continued supply tightness, though the pace of Market Stability Reserve injections from September remains a key swing factor.