Epignosis Insights Report Finds Global Luxury Goods Market Set to Return to Growth in 2026 After Two-Year Slump
Epignosis Insights, a market intelligence and research firm, has released new analysis on the Global Luxury Goods Market indicating that the sector is on track to return to growth in 2026 following a two-year contraction. According to the analysis, global personal luxury goods spending declined from an estimated 364 billion euros in 2024 to roughly 358 billion euros in 2025, before projected growth of 2 to 4 percent this year would bring the market to between 365 billion and 373 billion euros, with an upside scenario of 4 to 6 percent growth possible under favorable conditions.
The findings draw on primary disclosures from major luxury conglomerates, as well as published industry monitor data. The analysis describes a market recovery built on a different foundation than the rapid, price-led expansion that characterized the years between 2015 and 2023. Rather than a uniform rebound, growth in 2026 is concentrated in specific categories, geographies, and consumer segments, a pattern the research says has significant implications for companies operating across the luxury value chain.
Among the report's key findings, jewelry has emerged as the strongest-performing category within personal luxury goods, with company-reported results showing growth well ahead of the broader market. Leather goods and footwear, by contrast, remain the most pressured categories, still recovering from several years of aggressive price increases and now facing additional cost pressure from tariff policy affecting imported goods. Prestige cosmetics growth has also slowed after multiple years of strong expansion, while apparel, eyewear, and fragrance are holding relatively steady.
Geographically, the analysis identifies a meaningfully more diversified growth picture than in previous years. The United States has become the most consistent large-market growth driver, while mainland China is showing early signs of stabilization following sharp declines in 2024 and 2025. Executives surveyed for related industry research increasingly cite Japan, the Middle East, and India as significant growth engines in their own right, rather than as secondary markets dependent on Chinese tourist spending.
The research also highlights a structural shift in the composition of the luxury customer base. The global pool of luxury buyers is estimated to have contracted from approximately 400 million consumers in 2022 to around 340 million in 2025, with further losses projected. The analysis attributes much of this decline to years of price increases that outpaced improvements in product quality, craftsmanship, or service, pushing a significant share of aspirational buyers out of the category entirely. Even among the wealthiest clients, who account for nearly half of total luxury spending, the research notes signs of fatigue with continued price escalation.
Pricing strategy features prominently in the findings. The analysis notes that a substantial majority of luxury market growth between 2023 and 2025 came from price increases rather than higher sales volumes, with average prices across the category rising sharply over that period. The report suggests this approach faces diminishing returns given the scale of customer attrition already observed, and recommends that companies operating in the space reassess pricing architecture rather than relying on further across-the-board increases to sustain revenue growth.
Tariff policy introduced in 2025 also features as a near-term risk factor, with the analysis noting that costs for imported leather goods and footwear have already risen and could increase further over the next two years as sourcing constraints compound the effect of import duties. Softer tourist retail spending in parts of Europe and Japan is identified as an additional headwind, even as domestic demand in those markets has generally held steady.
The report frames 2026 as a year of stabilization and strategic recalibration for the luxury sector rather than a straightforward return to previous growth patterns. It outlines a base-case, upside, and downside scenario for full-year performance, with outcomes contingent on continued easing of regional geopolitical tensions and the pace of recovery in Chinese consumer demand.
The analysis further notes that digital engagement and the adoption of artificial intelligence are reshaping how luxury brands interact with clients throughout this recovery. Survey data referenced in the report indicates that the large majority of surveyed luxury clients believe artificial intelligence tools can meaningfully improve product discovery and personalized recommendations. However, a substantial share of the same respondents expressed concern about losing personal, human-led service in the process. The research suggests that brands succeeding in this environment are those using digital tools to support and scale existing client relationships rather than replace them outright.
Sustainability and circularity also feature as a growing consideration within the broader luxury recovery. The analysis cites survey findings showing that a majority of luxury companies now offer product repair or refurbishment services, and that a significant share operate certified pre-owned or trade-in programs. The report suggests that these circular business practices are becoming closely tied to brand value and customer retention, particularly among younger buyers who increasingly factor sustainability credentials into purchasing decisions.
Epignosis Insights conducts research and analysis across a range of consumer, industrial, and technology markets, producing market sizing, competitive benchmarking, and demand forecasting for companies evaluating strategic decisions in these sectors.
About Epignosis Insights
Epignosis Insights is a market research and intelligence firm providing data-driven analysis, market sizing, and strategic insight across a range of global industries, supporting companies in making informed decisions around market entry, competitive positioning, and growth strategy.