Asia Cobalt Price Tracker September 2026 – Website Press Release

Monthly tracker finds the sell-off has overshot the structural picture, with an October sulphate range of RMB54,000–62,000 per tonne

Epignosis Insights, a market research and brand intelligence consultancy, today released its Asia Cobalt Price Tracker for September 2026. The monthly report gives cathode makers, refiners, miners and investors a single view of Asian cobalt prices across hydroxide, sulphate, metal and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), together with supply, demand and outlook analysis.

The tracker finds that September brought the sharpest monthly decline in Asian cobalt prices since the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) introduced its export controls. The cobalt metal reference fell to about US$39,140 per tonne by 29 September, roughly 30% lower in a month. Cobalt hydroxide CIF Asia closed the third quarter at US$17.25 per lb and cobalt sulphate ex-works China at RMB58,000 per tonne.

Epignosis Insights concludes that the decline reflects a timing surge in DRC-origin arrivals meeting soft battery demand, rather than an end to the quota-driven tightness that has supported cobalt since 2025.

September 2026 Price Highlights

A fast fall concentrated in four weeks

Cobalt traded near US$56,300 per tonne on 1 July and held close to that level until early September, after reaching nearly US$58,000 in the first quarter. Most of the quarter's losses then came within four weeks. Epignosis Insights notes that the speed of the fall, rather than its size, caught Asian buyers off guard.

Sulphate led, hydroxide stalled

Cobalt sulphate declined every week in September as recyclers discounted units ahead of Golden Week. Cobalt hydroxide trading stalled through August, with sellers refusing bids below US$20 per lb and buyers holding adequate stock. Indonesian MHP sellers absorbed a large share of the adjustment as cheaper hydroxide pushed payables down by more than 25 percentage points.

Supply Developments

DRC shipments returned in a rush

The market turned as Congolese material began reaching China in volume under the quota regime. By late August, the state trader Entreprise Générale du Cobalt had already shipped its full allocated quota. Epignosis Insights reads this as a timing effect: quota holders front-loaded shipments once customs procedures settled, compressing several months of arrivals into a short window.

The structural cap remains tight

The DRC produced an estimated 230,000 tonnes of cobalt in 2025, about 73% of world output, yet its export quota for 2026 and 2027 is capped at 96,600 tonnes a year. CMOC alone holds a 2026 quota of 31,200 tonnes against production guidance of 100,000–120,000 tonnes. The company produced 65,305 tonnes of cobalt in the first half of 2026, and Epignosis Insights expects DRC producers to keep building stock inside the country.

Indonesia's growth faces cost pressure

Indonesia is Asia's second pillar of supply, but sulphur costs are weighing on its high-pressure acid leach plants. The Cobalt Institute has cut its Indonesian MHP forecast and estimates total global mine supply in 2026 at 225,000 tonnes. With MHP payables now at 65.8%, Epignosis Insights expects Indonesian sellers to resist further cuts in October.

Demand Outlook and Epignosis Insights View

Demand is a question of timing

The NCM battery order book remained soft in September as lithium iron phosphate continued to gain share in Chinese energy storage and lower-cost electric vehicles. Cathode makers in South Korea and Japan, the region's most cobalt-intensive buyers outside China, had little reason to chase falling prices. Epignosis Insights expects modest restocking after Golden Week, as buyers return to a market where prices have already fallen by about a third.

Price outlook

Epignosis Insights expects cobalt sulphate EXW China to trade between RMB54,000 and RMB62,000 per tonne in October, and cobalt hydroxide CIF Asia between US$16.00 and US$18.50 per lb. Its base case places the fourth-quarter 2026 cobalt metal reference at US$41,000 per tonne, within a range of US$36,000–46,000. Upside risk comes from slower DRC customs clearance or tighter quota enforcement; downside risk comes from further recycler discounting and lower MHP payables.

"September was a shipping surge, not a supply glut," said Abhijith Nair, Senior Research Manager at Epignosis Insights. "The DRC can still export less than half of what it mines, and Indonesia's growth is running into cost limits. Once the front-loaded cargoes are absorbed, we expect Asian cobalt prices to stabilise, which makes this dip a sensible window for cathode makers to extend cover."

The tracker's procurement guidance is to extend sulphate cover into the first quarter of 2027, favour hydroxide over MHP while the payable gap persists, and avoid long fixed-price commitments until 2027 DRC export patterns become clear.

Report Coverage and Availability

The September 2026 edition of the Asia Cobalt Price Tracker covers:

• Cobalt metal, hydroxide CIF Asia and sulphate EXW China price movements
• MHP cobalt payables and the Indonesian supply outlook
• DRC export flows, the 96,600-tonne quota and producer economics
• 2025 mine output by country against the DRC export cap
• The Asian cobalt supply chain from feedstock to cathode
• A comparison of price forecasts and the Epignosis Insights October range

The report includes seven charts and diagrams and five quick-reference FAQs. It is compiled by Epignosis Insights from government agencies, industry associations, company reports, consulting research and market news, with each external source referenced once.

About Epignosis Insights

Epignosis Insights is a market research and brand intelligence consultancy based in Pune, India. It delivers commodity price trackers, market sizing, competitive intelligence and brand health tracking for clients across FMCG, BFSI, automotive, industrial and technology sectors.