Will planned LNG supply be enough to meet long-term demand?

Shell's LNG Outlook 2026 forecasts global demand will reach nearly 700 million tonnes per year by 2050, a 65% increase from 2025, and estimates that planned supply additions will fall short, with a further 200 million tonnes per year of new liquefaction capacity needed through the 2030s and 2040s.

Published: July 22, 2026

LNG Export Capacity: Mapping the Next Decade of Global Supply

Q: How large is global LNG liquefaction capacity today?

The International Gas Union's World LNG Report 2026 found that global liquefaction capacity reached 524.5 million tonnes per annum by the end of 2025, while global LNG trade hit a record 437 million tonnes, up 6.3% year over year.

Q: How much will US LNG export capacity grow by 2030?

The US Energy Information Administration projects domestic LNG export capacity will climb to 27.7 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, up from a current peak of roughly 18.3 billion cubic feet per day, as projects like Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass LNG come online.

Q: How much is Qatar expanding its LNG capacity?

Qatar's North Field expansion will lift national LNG production capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum to 142 million tonnes per annum by 2030, an increase of nearly 85%, though a March 2026 attack on the Ras Laffan facility temporarily removed about 17% of nameplate capacity.

LNG Export Capacity: Mapping the Next Decade of Global Supply

The Largest Buildout in LNG History Is Already Underway

Global Liquefied Natural Gas Markets are entering a supply wave unlike anything the industry has seen. The International Gas Union's World LNG Report 2026, produced with Rystad Energy as knowledge partner, found that global liquefaction capacity reached 524.5 million tonnes per annum by the end of 2025, while global LNG trade hit a record 437 million tonnes, up 6.3 percent year over year and the strongest expansion since 2022. The same report recorded 68.4 million tonnes per annum of new liquefaction capacity reaching final investment decision in 2025 alone, the highest level since 2019, capping a five-year investment cycle that approved 206 million tonnes per annum of new capacity. With more than 1,100 million tonnes per annum of proposed capacity still under development globally, the next decade is shaping up to be the most consequential period of supply growth the LNG industry has ever recorded.

The United States Cements Its Position as the World's Largest Exporter

The US Energy Information Administration projects that domestic LNG export capacity will climb to 27.7 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, up from a current peak of roughly 18.3 billion cubic feet per day, as projects under construction come online in successive waves through 2027. The agency's data shows five major projects, including Corpus Christi Stage 3, Golden Pass LNG, Port Arthur LNG Phase 1, and Rio Grande LNG, adding a combined several billion cubic feet per day of new capacity, with LNG exports themselves projected to exceed 30 billion cubic feet per day by 2050 in most EIA scenarios. Notably, the EIA reported that US LNG exports to Europe reached a record 10.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, accounting for 68 percent of total export volumes, underscoring how central American supply has become to global gas security.

Qatar Pursues an 85 Percent Capacity Expansion Through 2030

Qatar's North Field expansion remains the single largest LNG capacity addition planned anywhere in the world. According to reporting from Euronews, QatarEnergy is executing a three-phase buildout, North Field East, North Field South, and North Field West, that will lift national production capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum to 142 million tonnes per annum by 2030, an increase of nearly 85 percent. The expansion has not been without disruption: an attack on the Ras Laffan LNG export facility in March 2026 damaged two liquefaction trains, with QatarEnergy estimating repairs could take up to five years, temporarily removing roughly 17 percent of the country's nameplate capacity from the market even as construction on the remaining phases continues.

Shell Warns That Today's Wave Will Not Be Enough

Even with record levels of capacity under construction, Shell's LNG Outlook 2026 cautions that supply additions already planned will fall short of long-term demand. The company forecasts global LNG demand will reach nearly 700 million tonnes per year by 2050, a 65 percent increase from 2025 levels of 422 million tonnes, driven by Asian economic growth, industrial decarbonization, and rising electricity demand linked to artificial intelligence and data centers. Shell's modeling points to roughly 180 million tonnes per year of new supply entering the market by 2030, but estimates that a further 200 million tonnes per year of additional liquefaction capacity will be needed through the 2030s and 2040s beyond projects already under construction, implying a global supply deficit could begin to emerge by the late 2030s absent continued investment.

A Near-Term Glut Complicates the Long-Term Growth Story

Despite Shell's long-term deficit warning, the near-term picture looks very different. Reuters reported that global LNG output is set to jump in 2026, easing the tightness that has persisted since the 2022 energy crisis and pressuring prices as at least 35 million tonnes of new capacity, primarily from the United States and Qatar, enters the market. Analysts cited in that reporting, including Kpler, S&P Global, and Rystad Energy, described 2026 as a transitional year in which supply growth outpaces near-term demand, a dynamic that could persist through 2029 as the current wave of US and Qatari capacity continues ramping toward full production. That combination, a multi-year oversupply cycle layered on top of a genuine long-term deficit risk, is likely to define investment decisions and pricing volatility across the LNG sector for the remainder of the decade.

What the Next Decade of Supply Will Look Like

Taken together, these data points describe an industry investing at record scale while still debating whether it is investing enough. The United States and Qatar alone account for more than two-thirds of the capacity currently under construction or in advanced development, concentrating supply risk in two geographies even as new entrants such as Canada, Mozambique, and Argentina begin contributing meaningful volumes for the first time. For buyers, investors, and infrastructure developers, the next decade of LNG export capacity will be defined less by whether new supply arrives, it clearly will, and more by whether it arrives fast enough, and in the right locations, to meet demand growth that Shell and other forecasters increasingly see accelerating rather than slowing.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much global LNG liquefaction capacity exists today?

The International Gas Union's World LNG Report 2026 recorded global liquefaction capacity at 524.5 million tonnes per annum at the end of 2025, with more than 1,100 million tonnes per annum of additional capacity proposed.

How much will US LNG export capacity grow by 2030?

The US Energy Information Administration projects export capacity will rise to 27.7 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, up from a current peak of about 18.3 billion cubic feet per day.

What is Qatar's North Field expansion targeting?

QatarEnergy's three-phase North Field expansion aims to raise national LNG production capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum to 142 million tonnes per annum by 2030.

Is the LNG market facing oversupply or a shortage?

Both, on different timelines. Reuters reporting points to a near-term supply glut through roughly 2029, while Shell's long-term outlook warns of a potential supply deficit emerging in the late 2030s without continued investment.

What is driving long-term LNG demand growth?

Shell's LNG Outlook 2026 attributes long-term demand growth to Asian economic expansion, industrial decarbonization, and rising electricity demand from artificial intelligence and data centers.