Epignosis Insights Global Nickel Price Tracker: LME Nickel Slips 2.3% in Week 38 as Indonesia Resets Ore Benchmark and Inventories Climb
Epignosis Insights, a market research and brand intelligence consultancy, has released the latest edition of its Global Nickel Price Tracker, covering Week 38 of 2026 (15–21 September). The report finds that the global nickel market has entered a phase of controlled retreat, with benchmark prices falling to their lowest level of the year as a policy change in Indonesia and rising exchange inventories outweighed early signs of recovering demand in China.
Nickel Prices Fall to a 2026 Low
According to the tracker, the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash nickel contract averaged US$16,115 per tonne during the week, down US$376, or 2.3%, from US$16,491 per tonne in Week 37. The three-month contract followed a similar path, averaging US$16,259 per tonne against US$16,645 per tonne a week earlier. Cash nickel settled at US$16,055 per tonne on 18 September, the lowest official settlement recorded so far in 2026, before closing the week at US$16,125 per tonne.
Despite the weekly decline, trading was notably contained. The intra-week range was only US$115 per tonne, and the market lost just 0.5% on a close-to-close basis. Epignosis Insights interprets this as consolidation following the sharp sell-off of 10–11 September rather than a sign of capitulation.
Year-to-Date Picture Shows a Market That Has Given Back Its Policy Premium
Monthly average cash prices rose from US$17,844 per tonne in January to a peak of US$18,805 per tonne in May. Since then, each month has recorded a lower average, and the September month-to-date figure of US$16,388 per tonne is the weakest of the year. Nickel now trades 7.3% below its year-to-date average of US$17,383 per tonne and 17.1% below the May high of US$19,450 per tonne.
The second-quarter rally priced in supply tightness faster than the physical market could deliver it," said a spokesperson for the Epignosis Insights metals research team. "What we are seeing in the third quarter is the market adjusting to the reality of ample inventories and slow downstream consumption. Nickel has now returned almost all of the premium it built on Indonesian policy expectations.
Indonesia's Ore Benchmark Reset Is the Week's Key Catalyst
The most significant development of the week was Indonesia's revision of its nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) formula, which took effect on 15 September. The change lowers the benchmark for 1.2% nickel limonite ore by about 45%, from US$44.97 to US$24.89 per wet metric tonne, bringing it below prevailing delivered market prices.
Epignosis Insights views the reset as a pragmatic correction rather than a reversal of Indonesia's supply discipline. By lowering the theoretical cost floor for high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) feedstock, the revision weakens one of the key arguments that had supported prices above US$17,000 per tonne. Ore quota controls, however, remain in place.
Rising Inventories Cap Recovery Attempts
Exchange stocks continue to signal that refined nickel is readily available. LME inventories rose by 4,194 tonnes during the week to 278,526 tonnes, the highest level since late May, and have climbed by more than 12,000 tonnes since the end of July. The cash-to-three-month spread averaged a contango of US$144 per tonne, a market structure that typically limits rallies until stocks begin to fall decisively.
Demand Signals Mixed but Improving at the Margin
On the demand side, the tracker notes that China's benchmark stainless steel futures contract recorded its first weekly gain in six weeks, while lower nickel input costs have helped restore margins for Chinese mills ahead of the October Golden Week holiday. Water-related output cuts at Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park also provided some support. Battery-related demand, however, remained subdued as cathode producers continue to shift toward lithium iron phosphate chemistries.
Outlook: Range-Bound Trading Expected Through Mid-October
Epignosis Insights' base-case scenario, assigned a 55% probability, anticipates LME cash nickel trading between US$15,900 and US$16,650 per tonne over the next four weeks. A bull case (25%) sees prices moving toward US$17,200 per tonne if Indonesia tightens ore quotas further or LME stocks begin a sustained decline. A bear case (20%) sees prices slipping to around US$15,400 per tonne if HPAL output accelerates on cheaper feedstock and Chinese demand disappoints after the holiday period.
For procurement teams, this is a market that rewards patience," the spokesperson added. "We recommend staggering purchases across the expected trading band rather than chasing short-term rebounds, and reviewing alloy surcharge clauses to ensure they reflect current LME levels.
What the Full Report Includes
The complete Week 38 Global Nickel Price Tracker provides:
■ A weekly price snapshot covering cash, three-month, spread, inventory and Indonesian reference price data
■ Eight charts and diagrams, including daily price trends, monthly averages, stocks versus price and a proprietary price driver map
■ Detailed supply-side analysis of Indonesian policy and producer performance
■ Demand-side analysis of stainless steel and battery markets
■ Global market balance context and a four-week scenario outlook
■ Frequently asked questions for quick reference
About Epignosis Insights
Epignosis Insights is a Pune-based market research and brand intelligence consultancy providing market sizing, competitive intelligence and syndicated research across FMCG, BFSI, automotive, industrial and commodity sectors. Its Commodity Price Tracker series delivers regular, data-driven pricing analysis to help procurement, strategy and investment teams make informed decisions.