What is the US lumber benchmark price this week?

CME front-month lumber futures settled at $518.50 per thousand board feet (mbf) on October 8, 2026, about 15% lower year over year and roughly 22% below the July 2026 peak of $664/mbf.

Why are lumber prices falling?

Mortgage rates above 7% are curbing housing demand during the seasonally weak fourth quarter. The 30-year fixed rate reached 7.28% on October 1, mortgage applications have fallen for five consecutive weeks, and homebuilder sentiment dropped to a one-year low of 32 in September.

What duty do Canadian softwood lumber imports face?

Roughly 45% combined, comprising anti-dumping and countervailing cash deposits plus the 10% Section 232 tariff. The final seventh administrative review (AR7) results are expected in October 2026 and could lower the rate by about ten percentage points.

Does Canada's counter-tariff affect US lumber exports?

Yes. US-origin softwood lumber entering Canada faces a 25% surtax, and plywood, veneered panels and laminated veneer lumber face a 50% rate. The direct price impact on lumber is limited given modest US export volumes to Canada, but the panel tariff is a margin risk for US plywood and LVL producers.

When are lumber prices likely to recover?

Epignosis Insights expects a sustained recovery no earlier than the 2027 spring building season, contingent on lower mortgage rates. The base case places front-month futures in a $500–545/mbf range through the rest of Q4 2026.

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U.S. Lumber Price Tracker

Report ID: CM04 Format: PDF, Excel Publish Date: Oct 2026

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